Analysis of Science of Military Strategy 2013

1.    Introduction. The Science of Military Strategy is published by PLA’s prestigious Academy of Military Science (AMS) as part of PLA’s professional military literature. The book is regarded as a conceptualisation of the PLA’s military strategy and an important reference for the PLA in conducting training, education and research. Science of Military Strategy 2013 is the third edition post 1987 and 2001. This publication consists of twelve chapters with first six chapters focusing on changing international order and balance chapters on specific PLA strategies in different domains. The central theme is ‘Evolution of Military Strategy as a Strategic Guidance for Local Warfare under Informatised Conditions’. The salient aspects of the document are highlighted in succeeding paragraphs. 

2.    China’s Belief in the Changing World Order. China sees ‘Cooperation and Competition’ among countries to be a reality and Asia-Pacific region as a pivot for international military struggle in future. China believes that its overall development in the multipolar and informatised world is a pre-requisite for desired safe environment. In sum, China views it as a ‘Window of Strategic Opportunity’ for development.

3.    Major Challenges to China’s Peaceful Development. China sees interference by Western powers in its sovereignty issues as well as their attempts to contain China’s growth as major challenges in her peaceful development. 

4.    Wars Likely to be Faced by China. China views large-scale and high-intensity war  in low probability/ high danger index and anti-secession war on fairly large scale/ intensity in high probability/ high danger index (Taiwan). Self-defensive counter attacks have been viewed at medium to small scale/ intensity with medium probability/ danger index (land border demarcation, maritime delimitation or civil war in neighbouring countries). Operations to combat terrorism & maintaining social stability have been predicted on Small-scale/ low-intensity.

5.    Nature of Future Wars. Chinese scholars predict future wars as “Local Wars under Conditions of Informatisation”. The main threats assessed are the sea based threat and threat from the high-tech warfare. Protection of overseas interests will be an increasing requirement. The document suggests that the PLA is undergoing a transformation from “Contingency-based Strategy” to “Capability-based Strategy.”

6.    Characteristics of Contemporary Wars. The document identifies pertinent characteristics of contemporary wars, to include System Confrontation, importance of mid and long-range precision strike as the pattern of operation, Capability enhancement by information systems and expansion of areas of operation from three to five networked dimensions.

7.    Deterrence.     Deterrence is considered as an essential strategic concept in politico-military and psychological domains. PLA strives to build reliable and credible deterrence capacity through innovating a high-technological weapon system and building up war capacity. 

8.    Space. The role of space in China’s military thinking has progressively changed from “Supportive Component” in 1997 to “Major Component” in 2002.  China’s overall goal in the space is securing the safety of space assets, and protecting legal interests in the space, while not interfering in other countries’ legitimate interests in the space.

9.    Cyberspace. The main goal of China’s cyber deterrence is to ensure information security in the domains of finance, communication, transportation, energy, national defence and the military force. China’s strategy is to limit and contain cyber attacks in a bearable manner. It is apparently defensive and non-destructive.  China believes in creating asymmetry against conventional forces of major military powers using space and cyberspace.
 
10.    Joint Operations. China’s military strategy emphasises the concept of joint operations among the five dimensions of military operation. Joint operation focuses on creating asymmetrical advantage in a particular area, which can have a critical impact on the whole system; so as to destroy the will of an adversary to fight.

11.    Nuclear Forces. The strategy propagates the possibility of China’s nuclear forces raising the alert level to “launch on warning” posture. US missile defence plans are one of the several factors seen as the “increasingly complex nuclear security situation facing China”. 
12.     China’s Assessment of India’s Military Strategy. The document has assessed Indian military strategy in four major blocks viz ‘Limited Offensive Strategy’ from 1947 to early 1960s, ‘Two-Front Expansion Strategy’ from 1960s to early 1970s, ‘‘Securing Land and Controlling Sea Strategy’ from 1970s to 1980s and ‘Regional Offensive to Regional Deterrence Strategy’ after Cold War. As per the document, India’s current military strategy is to use ‘Dissuasive Deterrence’ against China, ‘Punitive’ Deterrence’ against South Asian countries and ‘Symmetrical Nuclear Deterrence’ against the US, China & Pakistan.

13.    Correlation with Defence White Papers. The correlation of 2013 edition of the ‘Science of Military Strategy’ with the 2015 & 2019 Defence white Papers and the reforms outlined in November 2015 reflect that the military strategy was evolved as a coherent futuristic approach in 2013 edition.

14. Comparison with 2001 Edition. 2013 edition represents an evolution of China’s approach to military strategy based on traditional concepts such as “Active Defence,” however, by adjusting these ideas with the new circumstances. The 2013 edition exhibits more practical and applied approach than the 2001 edition, with an emphasis on the “System of Military Power with Chinese Characteristics” and key capabilities that china needs to develop in the coming decades to defend its territory and interests. Several new strategic concepts like ‘Forward Defence’, ‘Strategic Space’, ‘Effective Control’ and ‘Strategic Posture’ have been introduced in the 2013 edition.

Conclusion

15. This publication seems to form the basis for PLA’s recent reforms, military modernisation and defence white papers of 2015 and 2019. However, the Science of Military Strategy may already be undergoing a change as the warfare is shifting from ‘informatisation to intellegentisation’ as per 2019 Defence White Paper. Overall, this publication is valuable as it demonstrates the approach that china has taken to investigate the issues of emerging domains, concepts of deterrence, world order and the fundamental perception of China’s mission in the world.